The 2026 housing market is already taking shape, and buyers and homeowners want to know one thing: Will the road finally get smoother?
National forecasts from NAR, Realtor.com, and Zillow hint at gradual but meaningful progress. Nothing dramatic. No sudden reset. But definitely a slow slide back toward balance.
Below is a clear breakdown of what the experts see coming and how it could influence your next move.
Sales Activity: Slow Improvement, Not a Surge
All major forecasters agree that home sales should increase nationwide in 2026. Affordability will improve just enough to bring more buyers back into the mix, though each group projects a different pace.
National expectations include:
- NAR: About a 14% jump in sales
- Zillow: Roughly a 4.3% increase, reaching about 4.26 million sales
- Realtor.com: A smaller 1.7% rise, reaching about 4.13 million
- Why the gap: Four out of five homeowners still sit on mortgage rates below 6%, which limits turnover
The key indicator to watch is how fast new listings go under contract. That gives you the clearest pulse on shifting demand.
Home Prices: Still Rising, With Some Breathing Room
Price growth continues in 2026, but the days of runaway appreciation are behind us. Waiting for a dramatic price drop is not a strategy that will pay off (unless the home was grossly overpriced to begin with). Homeowners will see continued equity gains, and buyers may find a bit more room to negotiate.
Forecasts suggest:
- Price growth between 1.2% (Zillow) and 4% (NAR)
- More markets holding steady, with fewer cities seeing declines
- Large markets with price drops shrinking from 24 in 2025 to 12 in 2026
Sellers can expect strong resale value, while buyers should prepare for realistic but improving conditions.
Mortgage Rates: Better Than 2025, Not a Return to 3%
All forecasts show 2026 as a year of better but not extraordinary mortgage rates. Think more stable, more manageable, but never back to the historic lows of the early 2020s.
National experts project:
- An average rate around 6.3%
- Gradual improvement, with no expectation of 3% rates (some wonder if this will ever happen again for multiple reasons).
- More buyers reentering the market as payments become less strained
For anyone planning to buy in Northern Virginia or Eastern West Virginia, talking with a lender early is one of the smartest steps. You need to know what is possible before the right home appears.
Inventory: More Choices, Still Not Normal
Inventory is finally growing again after years of scarcity. More homes on the market help both sides. Buyers get options. Sellers get serious, motivated shoppers.
National forecasts include:
- An 8.9% increase in existing home inventory
- Months of supply rising to 4.6 months, which reflects a more balanced market
- Builders offering incentives and rate buydowns to keep new homes moving
In Northern Virginia or Eastern West Virginia, more inventory reduces the frenzy, but writing a standout offer still matters.
Affordability: Slowly Moving in the Right Direction
For the first time in years, affordability shows signs of easing. It does not mean housing suddenly becomes cheap. It simply means more people can stay in the market and compete.
National indicators show:
- The typical payment taking up 29.3% of income, dipping below 30% for the first time since 2022
- More first-time buyers qualifying for financing as conditions ease
- Rent pressure easing, which helps renters save faster
If you are renting, this may be the opening you have been waiting for.
What It Means If You Want to Buy
Small improvements go a long way when you are trying to secure your first or next home. Buyers can expect:
- Slightly lower borrowing costs
- More homes to choose from
- Softer competition than the past few years
The smartest move you can make is to clarify your budget and timeline early. That prep gives you leverage when the right opportunity appears.
What It Means If You Want to Sell
Sellers still hold a solid position. Values remain strong. Equity is working in your favor. Yet buyers today are more payment aware, which means pricing strategy now matters more than ever.
Sellers benefit from:
- Strong resale values backed by steady demand
- A larger buyer pool that can now afford to move
- Significant equity that supports your next chapter
If a move aligns with your goals, 2026 could be an excellent window.
Bottom Line
The 2026 housing market looks more balanced, more stable, and more navigable than the last few years. With affordability improving and inventory rising, smart planning can put you in a strong position whether you hope to buy or sell in Northern Virginia or Eastern West Virginia.
If you want to explore your options and build a strategy for 2026, reach out anytime. These conversations are where the best decisions begin, and we would be honored to help you map your next move with confidence.